We’re approaching the point in the season where losses seem to get penalized double and teams can go from safely in the College Football Playoff field to fully out of it. Just ask some teams after a wild Week 7 that produced a trio of coach firings, a rash of shocking upsets and more than a handful of must-win results for teams that badly need them.
We also have a lot more data on teams and their opponents so we can further refine the outlook for several of them when it comes to their chase to make the playoff. In the Big 12 for example, Texas Tech not only looks like the class of the league, but a real threat to run the table given how it has already beaten one of its top competitors (Utah), have others hit by the injury bug (Arizona State, Iowa State) and could benefit from a decent run by one who has obvious flaws (BYU). At this point, it would be a slight surprise if the Red Raiders didn’t run the table even in the unpredictable Big 12, which puts them firmly in line to snag a quarterfinal berth in their home state this December.
Elsewhere, we’re starting to get a better grasp on the pecking order in the Big Ten, how the SEC is shaking out behind Alabama and if anybody can hold off Notre Dame, which seems to keep getting the results it needs to return to the CFP.
Factoring in all of the results so far, forecasting the rest of the season out and then putting our selection committee hats on, here’s the latest updated College Football Playoff projection and which matchups we could see this December.
College Football Playoff projected rankings after Week 7Ohio StateMiamiAlabamaTexas TechIndianaGeorgiaTexas A&MOregonOle MissGeorgia TechNotre DameUSFFirst RoundNo. 12 USF at No. 5 IndianaNo. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 GeorgiaNo. 10 Georgia Tech at No. 7 Texas A&MNo. 9 Ole Miss at No. 8 OregonQuarterfinalsCotton Bowl: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. winner of No. 12 USF–No. 5 IndianaSugar Bowl: No. 3 Alabama vs. winner of No. 11 Notre Dame–No. 6 Georgia Orange Bowl: No. 2 Miami vs. winner of No. 10 Georgia Tech–No. 7 Texas A&MRose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. winner of No. 9 Ole Miss–No. 8 OregonNo. 12 USF at No. 5 Indiana
After beating down previously undefeated North Texas on Friday, USF inches ahead of Tulane as the favorite to take home the American crown. That could set up a trip to Bloomington, Ind., if the Hoosiers aren’t able to sneak past a few conference champions.
No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Georgia
We’ve seen these two programs play between the hedges before, but could you imagine what the atmosphere would be like in a playoff game with the home team looking for revenge for last year’s Sugar Bowl? The Irish have a big hurdle against USC, but if they beat their intersectional rivals on Saturday, the path back to the CFP is there for the taking.
No. 10 Georgia Tech at No. 7 Texas A&M
There’s no shortage of storylines around a potential Haynes King bowl between his current team and his former one. A trip to Duke might just be the biggest game for the Yellow Jackets until the regular-season finale against Georgia—and that’s much more of a toss-up than previously expected.
No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 8 Oregon
The Ducks suffered a setback against Indiana, but still look O.K. to host a first-round game if they keep winning despite a résumé that seems a tad lighter than it did a week ago. As for the Rebels, a shaky game against Washington State isn’t what you want to see ahead of a trip to Athens, Ga.
Cotton Bowl: No. 4 Texas Tech
The bad news for the Red Raiders is that they may have only three wins over Top 25 teams even if they put together a perfect season going into Selection Sunday. That likely won’t matter if they continue to have the best scoring margin in the country and keep blowing out their conference opposition.
Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Alabama
Don’t overlook the potential seeding implications of that blemish against Florida State even if the Tide wind up as SEC champions, especially if it bumps them down a line compared to a team like Miami that would have a victory over that same common opponent.
It’s very much a coaching cliché to simply go 1–0 each weekend, but as long as Mario Cristobal’s team keeps doing that, it will be just fine. Doubly so if it winds up having wins over two other teams in the CFP field.
Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State
It seems totally fine if you want to argue the reigning champions don’t have a better résumé, right now or down the road, compared to some of their peers. But the dominance displayed by the Buckeyes is going to count plenty in helping them get a seed deserving of this season’s performances.
Top 25 after Week 7
While predicting how the College Football Playoff will wind up is an exercise in projecting out wins and losses throughout the season, my own Top 25 is much more of a week-to-week task focused on the here and now. How did teams play? Who did they beat? How does the talent on hand live up to their billing—or not?
Ohio State (6–0) | Last week: Beat Illinois, 34–16Miami (5–0) | Last week: OffIndiana (6–0) | Last week: Beat Oregon, 30–20Texas Tech (6–0) | Last week: Beat Kansas, 42–17Texas A&M (6–0) | Last week: Beat Florida, 34–17Alabama (5–1) | Last week: Beat Missouri, 27–24Georgia (5–1) | Last week: Beat Auburn, 20–10Oregon (5–1) | Last week: Lost to Indiana, 30–20Ole Miss (6–0) | Last week: Beat Washington State, 24–21Oklahoma (5–1) | Last week: Lost to Texas, 23–6Utah (5–1) | Last week: Beat Arizona State, 42–10Tennessee (5–1) | Last week: Beat Arkansas, 34–31LSU (5–1) | Last week: Beat South Carolina, 20–10Notre Dame (4–2) | Last week: Beat NC State, 36–7USC (5–1) | Last week: Beat Michigan, 31–13Georgia Tech (6–0) | Last week: Beat Virginia Tech 35–20Vanderbilt (5–1) | Last week: OffTexas (4–2) | Last week: Beat Oklahoma, 23–6Missouri (5–1) | Last week: Lost to Alabama, 27–24Virginia (5–1) | Last week: OffUSF (5–1) | Last week: Beat North Texas, 63–36BYU (6–0) | Last week: Beat, Arizona 33–27 (2OT)Memphis (6–0) | Last week: OffNebraska (5–1) | Last week: Beat Maryland, 34–31Tulane (5–1) | Last week: Beat East Carolina, 26–19
